DUBLIN (AP) -- Ireland's unemployment rate fell in October for the first time in two years to 12.5 percent, official data showed Wednesday, the first sign that the worst of the recession could be over.

The dip from September's rate of 12.6 percent surprised many economists, who have been forecasting continued growth in joblessness in this country of 4.4 million.

The unemployment rate last recorded a monthly fall in December 2007, when just 4.7 percent of the work force was jobless.

The report from the government Central Statistics Office said the number of people claiming unemployment benefits fell in October by more than 7,400 to 412,407.

But economists cautioned that a series of temporary factors could have fueled a brief U-turn, and Ireland still could be headed towards a 15 percent unemployment rate next year.

"On the surface these numbers are very encouraging and suggest that the jobless rate has peaked. ... They at least buy the government some time," said Alan McQuaid, chief economist at Bloxham Stockbrokers in Dublin.

But McQuaid noted that the reopening of Ireland's universities in September, combined with rising emigration and the emergency introduction of new government job-training programs, could be skewing the latest figures.

"Anecdotal evidence suggests that many graduates who couldn't find a job have emigrated or returned to further education," he said, adding that the job-training positions last for just six months.

Ireland last year slumped into its worst recession since the 1930s amid a property market collapse, banking crisis and surging national debt.

Unemployment report, http://tinyurl.com/33frur