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| AIZ > SEC Filings for AIZ > Form 10-K on 27-Feb-2009 | All Recent SEC Filings |
27-Feb-2009
Annual Report
The following discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements and accompanying notes which appear elsewhere in this report. It contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Please see "Forward-Looking Statements" and "Risk Factors" for more information. Our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements as a result of various factors, including those discussed below and elsewhere in this report, particularly under the headings "Item 1A-Risk Factors" and "Forward-Looking Statements."
General
On April 1, 2006, the Company separated its Assurant Solutions segment into two segments: Assurant Solutions and Assurant Specialty Property. In addition, concurrent with the creation of the new Assurant Solutions and Assurant Specialty Property segments, the Company realigned the Preneed segment under the new Assurant Solutions segment.
We report our results through five segments: Assurant Solutions, Assurant Specialty Property, Assurant Health, Assurant Employee Benefits, and Corporate and Other. The Corporate and Other segment includes activities of the holding company, financing expenses, net realized gains (losses) on investments, interest income earned from short-term investments held, interest income from excess surplus of insurance subsidiaries not allocated to other segments, run-off Asbestos business, and additional costs associated with excess of loss reinsurance and ceded to certain subsidiaries in the London market between 1995 and 1997. The Corporate and Other segment also includes the amortization of deferred gains associated with the portions of the sales of FFG and LTC. FFG and LTC were sold through reinsurance agreements as described below.
Critical Factors Affecting Results
Our results depend on the adequacy of our product pricing, underwriting and the accuracy of our methodology for the establishment of reserves for future policyholder benefits and claims, returns on invested assets and our ability to manage our expenses. Therefore, factors affecting these items may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations or financial condition. For a listing of those factors see "Item 1A-Risk Factors."
Revenues
We generate our revenues primarily from the sale of our insurance policies and, to a lesser extent, fee income by providing administrative services to certain clients. Sales of insurance policies are recognized in revenue as earned premiums while sales of administrative services are recognized as fee income. In late 2000, the majority of Assurant Solutions' domestic credit insurance clients began a transition from the purchase of our credit insurance products, from which we earned premium revenue, to debt protection administration programs, from which we earn fee income. Debt protection administration programs include services for non-insurance products that cancel or defer the required monthly payment on outstanding loans when covered events occur.
Effective January 1, 2009, new preneed life insurance policies in which death benefit increases are determined at the discretion of the Company will be accounted for as universal life contracts under FAS 97. For contracts sold prior to January 1, 2009, these types of preneed life insurance sales were accounted for and will continue to be accounted for under FAS 60. The difference between reporting in accordance with FAS 60 and FAS 97 is not material. In addition, this change will not materially impact our results of operations in the future, but will result in us recording policy fee income instead of net earned premiums and incurred losses.
Our premium and fee income is supplemented by income earned from our investment portfolio. We recognize revenue from interest payments, dividends and sales of investments. Currently, our investment portfolio is primarily invested in fixed maturity securities. Both investment income and realized capital gains on these investments can be significantly impacted by changes in interest rates.
Interest rate volatility can increase or reduce unrealized gains or unrealized losses in our portfolios. Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors, including governmental monetary policies, domestic and international economic and political conditions and other factors beyond our control. Fluctuations in interest rates affect our returns on, and the market value of, fixed maturity and short-term investments.
The fair market value of the fixed maturity securities in our portfolio and the investment income from these securities fluctuate depending on general economic and market conditions. The fair market value generally increases or decreases in an inverse relationship with fluctuations in interest rates, while net investment income realized by us from future investments in fixed maturity securities will generally increase or decrease with interest rates. We also have investments that carry pre-payment risk, such as mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities. Actual net investment income and/or cash flows from investments that carry prepayment risk may differ from estimates at the time of investment as a result of interest rate fluctuations. In periods of declining interest rates, mortgage prepayments generally increase and mortgage-backed securities, commercial mortgage obligations and bonds are more likely to be prepaid or redeemed as borrowers seek to borrow at lower interest rates. Therefore, we may be required to reinvest those funds in lower interest-bearing investments.
Expenses
Our expenses are primarily policyholder benefits, selling, underwriting and general expenses and interest expense.
Our profitability depends in part on accurately predicting policyholder benefits, claims and other costs. It also depends on our ability to manage future policyholder benefits and other costs through product design, underwriting criteria, utilization review or claims management catastrophe reinsurance coverage and, in health and dental insurance, negotiation of favorable provider contracts. Changes in the composition of the kinds of work available in the economy, market conditions and numerous other factors may also materially adversely affect our ability to manage claim costs. As a result of one or more of these factors or other factors, claims could substantially exceed our expectations, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Selling, underwriting and general expenses consist primarily of commissions, premium taxes, licenses, fees, amortization of deferred acquisition costs ("DAC") and value of business acquired ("VOBA") and general operating expenses. For a description of DAC and VOBA, see Notes 2, 9 and 11 to the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements included elsewhere in this report.
We incur expenses related to our debt and mandatorily redeemable preferred stock.
Critical Accounting Estimates
There are certain accounting policies that we consider to be critical due to the amount of judgment and uncertainty inherent in the application of those policies. In calculating financial statement estimates, the use of different assumptions could produce materially different estimates. In addition, if factors such as those described above or in "Item 1A-Risk Factors" cause actual events to differ from the assumptions used in applying the accounting policies and calculating financial estimates, there could be a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
The following critical accounting policies require significant estimates. The actual amounts realized could ultimately be materially different from the amounts currently provided for in our consolidated financial statements.
Reserves
Reserves are established according to GAAP using generally accepted actuarial methods and are based on a number of factors. These factors include experience derived from historical claim payments and actuarial assumptions to arrive at loss development factors. Such assumptions and other factors include trends, the incidence of incurred claims, the extent to which all claims have been reported and internal claims processing charges. The process used in computing reserves cannot be exact, particularly for liability coverages, since actual claim costs are dependent upon such complex factors as inflation, changes in doctrines of legal liabilities and damage awards. The methods of making such estimates and establishing the related liabilities are periodically reviewed and updated.
Reserves do not represent an exact calculation of exposure, but instead represent our best estimates, generally involving actuarial projections at a given time of what we expect the ultimate settlement and administration of a claim or group of claims will cost based on our assessment of facts and circumstances then known. The adequacy of reserves will be impacted by future trends in claims severity, frequency, judicial theories of liability and other factors. These variables are affected by both external and internal events, such as: changes in the economic cycle, changes in the social perception of the value of work, emerging medical perceptions regarding physiological or psychological causes of disability, emerging health issues and new methods of treatment or accommodation, inflation, judicial trends, legislative changes and claims handling procedures.
Many of these items are not directly quantifiable, particularly on a prospective basis. Reserve estimates are refined as experience develops. Adjustments to reserves, both positive and negative, are reflected in the statement of operations of the period in which such estimates are updated. Because establishment of reserves is an inherently uncertain process involving estimates of future losses, there can be no certainty that ultimate losses will not exceed existing claims reserves. Future loss development could require reserves to be increased, which could have a material adverse effect on our earnings in the periods in which such increases are made.
The following table provides reserve information by our major lines of business for the years ended December 31, 2008 and 2007:
December 31, 2008 December 31, 2007
Claims and Benefits Claims and Benefits
Payable Payable
Future Incurred Future Incurred
Policy But Not Policy But Not
Benefits and Unearned Case Reported Benefits and Unearned Case Reported
Expenses Premiums Reserves Reserves Expenses Premiums Reserve Reserves
Long Duration Contracts:
Preneed funeral life insurance
policies and investment-type
annuity contracts $ 3,432,583 $ 4,815 $ 11,664 $ 3,796 $ 3,479,115 $ 3,877 $ 11,559 $ 3,991
Life insurance no longer offered 498,945 735 1,516 349 511,093 765 1,414 509
Universal life and other
products no longer offered 288,981 300 208 7,682 307,930 1,689 267 8,211
FFG, LTC and other disposed
businesses 2,764,874 41,771 25,764 352,344 2,756,059 44,414 26,994 278,497
Medical 105,236 14,688 12,627 19,826 130,005 18,564 14,712 30,998
All other 5,026 288 18,194 7,664 5,294 316 14,174 6,248
Short Duration Contracts:
Group term life - 6,265 212,745 43,517 - 6,659 231,534 49,509
Group disability - 2,392 1,325,418 147,584 - 2,806 1,363,098 161,733
Medical - 109,759 96,702 181,158 - 109,755 115,198 201,601
Dental - 4,642 3,610 21,580 - 5,035 3,479 17,419
Property and Warranty - 1,887,510 228,920 332,930 - 1,816,436 192,307 312,091
Credit Life and Disability - 395,091 85,312 72,665 - 494,118 102,151 87,373
Extended Service Contract - 2,788,327 2,187 65,769 - 2,768,048 4,606 40,736
All other - 151,276 6,861 14,139 - 138,227 9,678 12,997
Total $ 7,095,645 $ 5,407,859 $ 2,031,728 $ 1,271,003 $ 7,189,496 $ 5,410,709 $ 2,091,171 $ 1,211,913
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For a description of our reserving methodology, see Note 12 to the Consolidated Financial Statements included elsewhere in this report.
The following discusses the reserving process for our major long duration product line.
Long Duration Contracts
Reserves for future policy benefits are recorded as the present value of future benefits to policyholders and related expenses less the present value of future net premiums. Reserve assumptions are selected using best estimates for expected investment yield, inflation, mortality and withdrawal rates. These assumptions reflect current trends, are based on our experience and include a provision for possible unfavorable deviation. We also record an unearned revenue reserve which represents the balance of the excess of gross premiums over net premiums that is still to be recognized in future years' income in a constant relationship to insurance in force.
Risks related to the reserves recorded for contracts from FFG and LTC disposed businesses have been 100% ceded via reinsurance. While the Company has not been released from the contractual obligation to the policyholders, changes in and deviations from economic and mortality assumptions used in the calculation of these reserves will not directly affect our results of operations unless there is a default by the assuming reinsurer.
Premium deficiency testing is performed annually and reviewed quarterly. Such testing involves the use of best estimate assumptions to determine if the net liability position (all liabilities less DAC) exceeds the minimum liability needed. Any premium deficiency would first be addressed by removing the provision for adverse deviation. To the extent a premium deficiency still remains, it would be recognized immediately by a charge to the statement of operations and a corresponding reduction in DAC. Any additional deficiency would be recognized as a premium deficiency reserve.
Historically, premium deficiency testing has not resulted in a material adjustment to DAC or reserves. Such adjustments would occur only if economic or mortality conditions significantly deteriorated.
Short Duration Contracts
For short duration contracts, claims and benefits payable reserves are reported
when insured events occur. The liability is based on the expected ultimate cost
of settling the claims. The claims and benefits payable reserves include
(1) case reserves for known but unpaid claims as of the balance sheet date;
(2) IBNR reserves for claims where the insured event has occurred but has not
been reported to us as of the balance sheet date; and (3) loss adjustment
expense reserves for the expected handling costs of settling the claims.
Periodically, we review emerging experience and make adjustments to our case
reserves and assumptions where necessary. Below are further discussions on the
reserving process for our major short duration products.
Group Disability and Group Term Life
Case or claim reserves are set for active individual claims on group long term disability policies and for disability waiver of premium benefits on group term life policies. Assumptions considered in setting such reserves include disabled life mortality and claim recovery rates, claim management practices, awards for social security and other benefit offsets and yield rates earned on assets supporting the reserves. Group long term disability and group term life waiver of premium reserves are discounted because the payment pattern and ultimate cost are fixed and determinable on an individual claim basis.
Factors considered when setting IBNR reserves include patterns in elapsed time from claim incidence to claim reporting, and elapsed time from claim reporting to claim payment.
Key sensitivities at December 31, 2008 for group long term disability claim reserves include the discount rate and claim termination rates.
Claims and Claims and
Benefits Payable Benefits Payable
Group disability, Group disability, claim
discount rate decreased termination
by 100 basis points $ 1,546,983 rate 10% lower $ 1,511,169
Group disability, as Group disability, as
reported $ 1,473,002 reported $ 1,473,002
Group disability, Group disability, claim
discount rate increased termination
by 100 basis points $ 1,405,172 rate 10% higher $ 1,435,026
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The discount rate is also a key sensitivity for group term life waiver of premium reserves.
Claims and Benefits Payable
Group term life, discount rate decreased by 10% $ 266,090
Group term life, as reported $ 256,262
Group life, discount rate increased by 10% $ 247,447
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Medical
IBNR reserves represent the largest component of reserves estimated for claims and benefits payable in our Medical line of business, and the primary methods we use in their estimation are the loss development method and the projected claim method for recent claim periods. Under the loss development method, we estimate ultimate losses for each incident period by multiplying the current cumulative losses by the appropriate loss development factor. Under the projected claim method, we use ultimate loss ratios when development methods do not provide enough data to reliably estimate reserves. In addition, we use variations on each method as well as a blend of the two. The primary variation is the use of projected claims using differing experience periods. We primarily use these two methods in our Medical line of business because of the limitations of relying exclusively on a single method.
We develop the best estimate of expected outstanding liabilities for medical IBNR reserves using generally accepted actuarial principles. The various product lines are evaluated using experience data of sufficient detail to allow for the compilation of historical loss patterns including but not limited to claim lag factors, projected claims per member and restated development factors. If sufficient experience data is not available, experience data from other similar blocks may be used. Industry data provides additional benchmarks when historical experience is too limited. This information is used to provide a range in which the expected outstanding liabilities may fall. The selection of the ultimate loss estimate varies by product line as the credibility of certain methods differs depending upon the in-force volume, the product's claim volatility and the method itself. The selection is also influenced by other available information that may indicate that historical experience data may not be appropriate to use for current liability estimates. Examples of such information include but are not limited to changes in claims inventory levels, changes in provider negotiated rates or cost savings initiatives, increasing or decreasing medical cost trends, product changes and demographic changes in the underlying insured population.
The development of prior period estimates is also reviewed to assist in establishing the current period's loss reserves. The short claim lag time inherent in many of our Medical products allows for emerging trends to be identified quickly.
We evaluate all pertinent information and indicated ranges using experience and actuarial judgment to establish our best estimate for the associated liabilities.
Key sensitivities as of December 31, 2008 for medical reserves include claims processing levels, claims under case management, medical inflation, seasonal effects, medical provider discounts and product mix.
Claims and Benefits Payable
Medical, loss development factors 1% lower $ 291,860 *
Medical, as reported $ 277,860
Medical, loss development factors 1% higher $ 265,860
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* This refers to loss development factors for the most recent four months. Our historical claims experience indicates that approximately 87% of medical claims are paid within four months of the incurred date.
None of the changes in incurred claims from prior years in our Medical line of business were attributable to any change in our reserve methods or assumptions.
Property and Warranty
We develop the best estimate of loss reserves for our Property and Warranty line of business on a product line basis using generally accepted actuarial principles. Our Property and Warranty line of business includes creditor-placed homeowners, manufactured housing homeowners, credit property, credit unemployment and warranty insurance and some longer-tail coverages (e.g., asbestos, environmental, other general liability and personal accident). Our Property and Warranty loss reserves consist of case, IBNR and development on case reserves. The method we most often use in setting our Property and Warranty reserves is the loss development method. Under this method, we estimate ultimate losses for each accident period by multiplying the current cumulative losses by the appropriate loss development factor. We then calculate the reserve as the difference between the estimate of ultimate losses and the current case-incurred losses (paid losses plus case reserves). We select loss development factors based on a review of historical averages, and we consider recent trends and business specific matters such as current claims payment practices.
The loss development method involves aggregating loss data (paid losses and case-incurred losses) by accident quarter (or accident year) and accident age in quarters (or years) for each product or product grouping. As the data ages, we compile loss development factors that measure emerging claim development patterns between reporting periods. By selecting the most appropriate loss development factors, we project the known losses to an ultimate incurred basis for each accident period.
The data is typically analyzed using quarterly paid losses and/or quarterly case-incurred losses. Some product groupings may also use annual paid loss and/or annual case-incurred losses, as well as other methods such the expected loss ratio and Bornhuetter-Ferguson loss development methods.
Each of these reserve methodologies produces an indication of the loss reserves for the product or product grouping. The process to select the best estimate differs across lines of business. The single best estimate is determined based on many factors, including but not limited to:
• the nature and extent of the underlying assumptions;
• the quality and applicability of historical data - whether it be internal or industry data;
• current and future market conditions - the economic environment will often impact the development of loss triangles;
• the extent of data segmentation - data should be homogenous yet credible enough for loss development methods to apply, and
• the past variability of loss estimates - the loss estimates on some product lines will vary from actual loss experience more than others.
We review operational and claims activity to gather additional pertinent information. After reviewing all additional pertinent information, a final IBNR amount for each product grouping is selected. We may use other methods depending on data credibility and product line. We use the estimates generated by the various methods to establish a range of reasonable estimates. The best estimate of Property and Warranty reserves is generally selected from the middle to upper end of the third quartile of the range of reasonable estimates.
Most of our credit insurance business is written on a retrospective commission basis, which permits management to adjust commissions based on claims experience. Thus, any adjustment to prior years' incurred claims in this line of business is partially offset by a change in contingent commissions, which is included in the selling, underwriting and general expenses line in our results of operations.
While management has used its best judgment in establishing its estimate of required reserves, different assumptions and variables could lead to significantly different reserve estimates. Two key measures of loss activity are loss frequency, which is a measure of the number of claims per unit of insured exposure, and loss severity, which is a measure of the average size of claims. Factors affecting loss frequency include the effectiveness of loss controls and safety programs and changes in economic activity or weather patterns. Factors affecting loss severity include changes in policy limits, retentions, rate of inflation and judicial interpretations.
If the actual level of loss frequency and severity are higher or lower than expected, the ultimate reserves will be different than management's estimate. The effect of higher and lower levels of loss frequency and severity levels on our ultimate costs for claims occurring in 2008 would be as follows:
. . .
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