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AMR > SEC Filings for AMR > Form 10-Q on 16-Apr-2009All Recent SEC Filings

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Form 10-Q for AMR CORP


16-Apr-2009

Quarterly Report


Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

Forward-Looking Information

Statements in this report contain various forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, which represent the Company's expectations or beliefs concerning future events. When used in this document and in documents incorporated herein by reference, the words "expects," "plans," "anticipates," "indicates," "believes," "forecast," "guidance," "outlook," "may," "will," "should," "seeks," "targets" and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include, without limitation, the Company's expectations concerning operations and financial conditions, including changes in capacity, revenues, and costs; future financing plans and needs; the amounts of its unencumbered assets and other sources of liquidity; fleet plans; overall economic and industry conditions; plans and objectives for future operations; regulatory approvals and actions, including the Company's application for antitrust immunity with other oneworld alliance members; and the impact on the Company of its results of operations in recent years and the sufficiency of its financial resources to absorb that impact. Other forward-looking statements include statements which do not relate solely to historical facts, such as, without limitation, statements which discuss the possible future effects of current known trends or uncertainties, or which indicate that the future effects of known trends or uncertainties cannot be predicted, guaranteed or assured. All forward-looking statements in this report are based upon information available to the Company on the date of this report. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. Guidance given in this report regarding capacity, fuel consumption, fuel prices, fuel hedging, and unit costs, and statements regarding expectations of regulatory approval of the Company's application for antitrust immunity with other oneworld members are forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of factors that could cause the Company's actual results to differ materially from the Company's expectations. The following factors, in addition to other possible factors not listed, could cause the Company's actual results to differ materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements: the materially weakened financial condition of the Company, resulting from its significant losses in recent years; weaker demand for air travel and lower investment asset returns resulting from the severe global economic downturn; the Company's need to raise substantial additional funds and its ability to do so on acceptable terms; the ability of the Company to generate additional revenues and reduce its costs; continued high and volatile fuel prices and further increases in the price of fuel, and the availability of fuel; the Company's substantial indebtedness and other obligations; the ability of the Company to satisfy existing financial or other covenants in certain of its credit agreements; changes in economic and other conditions beyond the Company's control, and the volatile results of the Company's operations; the fiercely and increasingly competitive business environment faced by the Company; potential industry consolidation and alliance changes; competition with reorganized carriers; low fare levels by historical standards and the Company's reduced pricing power; changes in the Company's corporate or business strategy; government regulation of the Company's business; conflicts overseas or terrorist attacks; uncertainties with respect to the Company's international operations; outbreaks of a disease (such as SARS or avian flu) that affects travel behavior; labor costs that are higher than those of the Company's competitors; uncertainties with respect to the Company's relationships with unionized and other employee work groups; increased insurance costs and potential reductions of available insurance coverage; the Company's ability to retain key management personnel; potential failures or disruptions of the Company's computer, communications or other technology systems; losses and adverse publicity resulting from any accident involving the Company's aircraft; changes in the price of the Company's common stock; and the ability of the Company to reach acceptable agreements with third parties. Additional information concerning these and other factors is contained in the Company's Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including but not limited to the Company's 2008 Form 10-K (see in particular Item 1A "Risk Factors" in the 2008 Form 10-K).


Overview

The Company recorded a net loss of $375 million in the first quarter of 2009 compared to a net loss of $341 million in the same period last year, due primarily to a decrease in passenger revenue. The Company is experiencing significantly weaker demand for air travel driven by the severe and rapid downturn in the global economy. Passenger revenue decreased by $823 million to $4.1 billion in the three months ended March 31, 2009 compared to the same period last year. Mainline passenger unit revenues decreased 8.7 percent for the first quarter due to a 4.5 percent decrease in passenger yield (passenger revenue per passenger mile) compared to the same period in 2008 and a load factor decrease of 3.5 points. The Company implemented capacity reductions in 2008 in response to record high fuel prices which have somewhat mitigated weakening of demand. No assurance can be given that any capacity reductions or other steps the Company may take will be adequate to offset the effects of reduced demand.

The decrease in total passenger revenue was partially offset by significantly lower fuel prices; the Company paid an average of $1.91 per gallon in the first quarter 2009 compared to an average of $2.74 per gallon in the first three months of 2008, including effects of hedging.

The Company's unit costs excluding fuel were greater for the quarter ended March 31, 2009 than for the same period in 2008, and are expected to be higher for each period during for the remainder of 2009 compared to the corresponding prior year period. Factors driving the increase include increased defined benefit pension expenses (due to the stock market decline) and retiree medical and other expenses, and cost pressures associated with the Company's previously announced capacity reductions and dependability initiatives.

In reaction to these challenges, the Company has continued to work to implement and maintain several key actions designed to help it manage through these near term challenges while seeking to position itself for long-term success, including the range of service charges introduced in 2008 to generate additional revenue, execution of its fleet renewal and replacement plan, initiatives to improve dependability and on-time performance, and an initiative to strengthen its global network through the application pending with the U.S. Department of Transportation for global antitrust immunity with four members of the oneworld global alliance.

The Company's ability to return to profitability and its ability to continue to fund its obligations on an ongoing basis will depend on a number of factors, many of which are largely beyond the Company's control. Certain risk factors that affect the Company's business and financial results are discussed in the Risk Factors listed in Item 1A in the 2008 Form 10-K. In addition, most of the Company's largest domestic competitors and several smaller carriers have filed for bankruptcy in the last several years and have used this process to significantly reduce contractual labor and other costs. In order to remain competitive and to improve its financial condition, the Company must continue to take steps to generate additional revenues and to reduce its costs. Although the Company has a number of initiatives underway to address its cost and revenue challenges, the adequacy and ultimate success of these and other initiatives is not known at this time and cannot be assured. It will be very difficult for the Company to continue to fund its obligations on an ongoing basis, and to return to profitability, if the overall industry revenue environment does not improve substantially and if fuel prices were to increase and persist for an extended period at high levels.


LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES

Significant Indebtedness and Future Financing

The Company remains heavily indebted and has significant obligations (including substantial pension funding obligations), as described more fully under Item 7, "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" in the 2008 Form 10-K. Indebtedness is a significant risk to the Company as discussed in the Risk Factors listed in Item 1A in the 2008 Form 10-K. During 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009, the Company raised an aggregate of approximately $2.5 billion in financing to fund capital commitments (mainly for aircraft and ground properties), debt maturities, and employee pension obligations, and to bolster its liquidity. As of the date of this Form 10-Q, the Company believes it should have sufficient liquidity to fund its operations and obligations for the remainder of 2009, including repayment of debt and capital leases, capital expenditures and other contractual obligations. However, to maintain sufficient liquidity and because the Company has significant debt, lease and other obligations in the next several years, including commitments to purchase aircraft, as well as substantial pension funding obligations (refer to Contractual Obligations in Item 7, "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" in the 2008 Form 10-K), the Company will need access to substantial additional funding.

For the remainder of 2009, the Company will be required to make approximately $1.0 billion of principal payments on long-term debt and approximately $94 million in principal payments on capital leases, and the Company expects to spend approximately $1.3 billion on capital expenditures. In addition, the global economic downturn and the obligation to post cash collateral to secure fuel hedging obligations have negatively impacted, and may in the future negatively impact, the Company's liquidity. Increases in the amount of required reserves under credit card processing agreements may also negatively impact the Company's liquidity.

Despite the current disruptions in the capital markets, in the quarter ended March 31, 2009, the Company obtained an aggregate of approximately $174 million of financing under a loan secured by various aircraft and under previously committed sale leaseback financings of certain aircraft. In addition, in April 2009, the Company arranged committed financing for two aircraft scheduled to be delivered in 2009.

The Company's possible financing sources primarily include: (i) a limited amount of additional secured aircraft debt or sale leaseback transactions involving owned aircraft; (ii) leases of or debt secured by new aircraft deliveries; (iii) debt secured by other assets; (iv) securitization of future operating receipts;
(v) the sale or monetization of certain assets; (vi) unsecured debt; and (vii) issuance of equity and/or equity-like securities. Besides unencumbered aircraft, some of the Company's particular assets and other sources of liquidity that could be sold or otherwise used as sources of financing include AAdvantage program miles, and takeoff and landing slots, and certain of the Company's business units and subsidiaries, such as AMR Eagle. The Company's ability to obtain future financing is limited by the value of its unencumbered assets. A very large majority of the Company's aircraft assets (including most of the aircraft eligible for the benefits of Section 1110 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code) are encumbered. Also, the market value of these aircraft assets has declined in recent years, and may continue to decline. The Company believes it has at least $3.6 billion in unencumbered assets and other sources of liquidity as of March 31, 2009. However, the availability and level of the financing sources described above cannot be assured, particularly in light of the Company's and American's financial results in recent years, the Company's and American's substantial indebtedness, the difficult revenue environment they face, their reduced credit ratings, recent historically high fuel prices, and the financial difficulties experienced in the airline industry. In addition, the global economic downturn and recent severe disruptions in the capital markets and other sources of funding have resulted in greater volatility, less liquidity, widening of credit spreads and substantially more limited availability of funding. The inability of the Company to obtain necessary funding on acceptable terms would have a material adverse impact on the Company and on its ability to sustain its operations.

The Company's substantial indebtedness and other obligations have important consequences. For example, they: (i) limit the Company's ability to obtain additional funding for working capital, capital expenditures, acquisitions and general corporate purposes, and adversely affect the terms on which such funding could be obtained; (ii) require the Company to dedicate a substantial portion of its cash flow from operations to payments on its indebtedness and other obligations, thereby reducing the funds available for other purposes; (iii) make the Company more vulnerable to economic downturns; and (iv) limit the Company's ability to withstand competitive pressures and reduce its flexibility in responding to changing business and economic conditions.


Future payments for all aircraft that the Company was committed to acquire as of March 31, 2009, including the estimated amounts for price escalation, are currently estimated to be approximately $3.6 billion. Payments are currently scheduled to be approximately $975 million in the remainder of 2009, $1.1 billion in 2010, $349 million in 2011, $217 million in 2012, $399 million in 2013, and $556 million for 2014 and beyond. These amounts are net of purchase deposits currently held by the manufacturer.

In 2008, the Company entered into a new purchase agreement with Boeing for the acquisition of 42 Boeing 787-9 aircraft. Per the purchase agreement, and before delays due to the recent Boeing strike as discussed below, the first such aircraft is scheduled to be delivered in 2012, and the last is scheduled to be delivered in 2018. The agreement also includes purchase rights to acquire up to 58 additional Boeing 787 aircraft, with deliveries between 2015 and 2020. Based on preliminary information received from Boeing on the impact of the overall Boeing 787 program delay to American's delivery positions due to the strike in 2008, the Company now believes the first of the initial 42 aircraft will be delivered during the second half of 2013. The first of the 58 optional purchase rights aircraft would be delivered in the second half of 2016 based on the same preliminary information. Under the 787-9 purchase agreement, except as described below, American will not be obligated to purchase a 787-9 aircraft unless it gives Boeing notice confirming its election to do so at least 18 months prior to the scheduled delivery date for that aircraft. If American does not give that notice with respect to an aircraft, the aircraft will be no longer subject to the 787-9 purchase agreement. These confirmation rights may be exercised until May 1, 2013, provided that those rights will terminate earlier if American reaches a collective bargaining agreement with its pilot union that includes provisions enabling American to utilize the 787-9 to American's satisfaction in the operations desired by American, or if American confirms its election to purchase any of the initial 42 787-9 aircraft. While there can be no assurances, American expects to have reached an agreement as described above with its pilots union prior to the first notification date. In either of those events, American would become obligated to purchase all of the initial 42 aircraft then subject to the purchase agreement. If neither of those events occur prior to May 1, 2013, then on that date American may elect to purchase all of the initial 42 aircraft then subject to the purchase agreement, and if it does not elect to do so, the purchase agreement will terminate in its entirety.
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The Company's continued aircraft replacement strategy, and its execution of that strategy, will depend on such factors as future economic and industry conditions and the financial condition of the Company.

Credit Facility Covenants

American has a secured bank credit facility which consists of a fully drawn $255 million revolving credit facility, with a final maturity on June 17, 2009, and a $435 million term loan facility, with a final maturity on December 17, 2010 (the Revolving Facility and the Term Loan Facility, respectively, and collectively, the Credit Facility). American's obligations under the Credit Facility are guaranteed by AMR.

The Credit Facility contains a covenant (the Liquidity Covenant) requiring American to maintain, as defined, unrestricted cash, unencumbered short term investments and amounts available for drawing under committed revolving credit facilities of not less than $1.25 billion for each quarterly period through the life of the Credit Facility. AMR and American were in compliance with the Liquidity Covenant as of March 31, 2009 and expect to be able to continue to comply with this covenant in the near term. In addition, the Credit Facility contains a covenant (the EBITDAR Covenant) requiring AMR to maintain a ratio of cash flow (defined as consolidated net income, before interest expense (less capitalized interest), income taxes, depreciation and amortization and rentals, adjusted for certain gains or losses and non-cash items) to fixed charges (comprising interest expense (less capitalized interest) and rentals). In May 2008, AMR and American entered into an amendment to the Credit Facility which waived compliance with the EBITDAR Covenant for periods ending on any date from and including June 30, 2008 through March 31, 2009, and which reduced the minimum ratios AMR is required to satisfy thereafter. The required ratio will be 0.90 to 1.00 for the one quarter period ending June 30, 2009 and will increase to 1.15 to 1.00 for the four quarter period ending September 30, 2010. Given the volatility of fuel prices and revenues, uncertainty in the capital markets and about other sources of funding, and other factors, it is difficult to assess whether the Company will be able to continue to comply with these covenants, and there are no assurances that it will be able to do so. Failure to comply with these covenants would result in a default under the Credit Facility which - if the Company did not take steps to obtain a waiver of, or otherwise mitigate, the default - could result in a default under a significant amount of its other debt and lease obligations, and otherwise have a material adverse impact on the Company and on its ability to sustain its operations.


Credit Card Processing Agreements

American has agreements with a number of credit card companies and processors to accept credit cards for the sale of air travel and other services. Under certain of American's current credit card processing agreements, the related credit card company or processor may hold back, under certain circumstances, a reserve from American's credit card receivables.

Under one such agreement, the amount of such reserve may be based on, among other things, the amount of unrestricted cash (not including undrawn credit facilities) held by American and American's debt service coverage ratio, as defined in such agreement. Given the volatility of fuel prices and revenues, uncertainty in the capital markets and other sources of funding, and other factors, it is difficult to forecast the required amount of such reserve at any time. The Company's maximum holdback exposure is $200 million through August 15, 2009, and the holdback reserve was $157 million as of March 31, 2009. However, if current conditions persist, absent a waiver or modification of the agreement, such required amount could be significantly greater than $200 million in the latter half of 2009.

Pension Funding Obligation

The Company is required to make minimum contributions to its defined benefit pension plans under the minimum funding requirements of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA), the Pension Funding Equity Act of 2004 and the Pension Protection Act of 2006. The Company is not required to make any 2009 contributions to its defined benefit pension plans under the provisions of these acts.

Although the Company is not required to make contributions to its defined benefit pension plans in 2009, based on current funding levels of the plans, the Company expects that the amount of the required contributions will be substantial in 2010 and future years. The Company expects to contribute approximately $13 million to its retiree medical and other benefit plan in 2009.

Cash Flow Activity

At March 31, 2009, the Company had $2.9 billion in unrestricted cash and short-term investments, which decreased by $243 million from the balance of $3.1 billion at December 31, 2008. Net cash provided by operating activities in the three-month period ended March 31, 2009 was $459 million, an increase of $10 million over the same period in 2008. The decline in unrestricted cash and short-term investments is primarily due to the significant decline in the demand for air travel, which resulted in a 16.6% decrease in passenger revenue and principal payments made during the first quarter.

The Company made scheduled debt and capital lease payments of $753 million in the first three months of 2009. Included in this amount, AMR retired, by purchasing with cash, the $318 million principal amount of its 4.50 Notes. Virtually all of the holders of the 4.50 Notes exercised their elective put rights and the Company purchased and retired these notes at a price equal to 100 percent of their principal amount. Under the terms of the 4.50 Notes, the Company had the option to pay the purchase price with cash, stock, or a combination of cash and stock, and the Company elected to pay for the 4.50 Notes solely with cash.

Despite the current disruptions in the capital markets, in the quarter ended March 31, 2009, the Company obtained an aggregate of approximately $174 million of financing under a loan secured by various aircraft and under previously committed sale leaseback financings of certain aircraft.

Capital expenditures for the first three months of 2009 were $169 million and primarily consisted of new aircraft and certain aircraft modifications.


Due to the current value of the Company's derivative contracts, some agreements with counterparties require collateral to be deposited by the Company. As of March 31, 2009, the cash collateral held by such counterparties from AMR was $343 million. The amount of collateral required to be deposited with the Company or with the counterparty by the Company is based on fuel price in relation to the market values of the derivative contracts and collateral provisions per the terms of those contracts and can fluctuate significantly. These derivative contracts are currently required to be collateralized at approximately 75 percent of the fair value of the liability position. As such, when these contracts settle (mainly in the second quarter of 2009), the collateral posted with counterparties will effectively offset the loss position and minimal further cash impact will be recorded assuming a static forward heating oil curve from March 31, 2009. Under the same assumption, the Company does not currently expect to be required to deposit significant additional cash collateral above March 31, 2009 levels with counterparties with regard to fuel hedges in place as of March 31, 2009. Additional information regarding the Company's fuel hedging program is also included in Item 3 "Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk" and in Note 9 to the condensed consolidated financial statements.

War-Risk Insurance

The U.S. government has agreed to provide commercial war-risk insurance for U.S. based airlines until August 31, 2009, covering losses to employees, passengers, third parties and aircraft. If the U.S. government does not extend the policy beyond that date, or if the U.S. government at anytime thereafter ceases to provide such insurance, or reduces the coverage provided by such insurance, the Company will attempt to purchase similar coverage with narrower scope from commercial insurers at an additional cost. To the extent this coverage is not available at commercially reasonable rates, the Company would be adversely affected. While the price of commercial insurance has declined since the premium increases immediately after terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, in the event commercial insurance carriers further reduce the amount of insurance coverage available to the Company, or significantly increase its cost, the Company would be adversely affected.


RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

For the Three Months Ended March 31, 2009 and 2008

Revenues

The Company's revenues decreased approximately $858 million, or 15.1 percent, to $4.8 billion in the first quarter of 2009 from the same period last year. American's passenger revenues decreased by 16.0 percent, or $699 million, on an 8.0 percent decrease in capacity (available seat mile) (ASM). American's passenger load factor decreased 3.5 points to 75.7 percent while passenger yield decreased by 4.5 percent to 12.87 cents. This resulted in a decrease in passenger revenue per available seat mile (RASM) of 8.7 percent to 9.74 cents. Following is additional information regarding American's domestic and international RASM and capacity:

                                 Three Months Ended March 31, 2009
                        RASM         Y-O-Y                              Y-O-Y
                       (cents)      Change        ASMs (billions)      Change

DOT Domestic               9.68        (7.2 ) %               23.1       (10.7 ) %
International              9.83       (11.1 )                 14.7        (3.3 )
  DOT Latin America       11.23        (8.0 )                  7.7        (4.5 )
  DOT Atlantic             7.96       (17.6 )                  5.3        (3.7 )
  DOT Pacific              9.28        (7.3 )                  1.7         4.2

The Company's Regional Affiliates include two wholly owned subsidiaries, American Eagle Airlines, Inc. and Executive Airlines, Inc. (collectively, AMR Eagle), and two independent carriers with which American has capacity purchase agreements, Trans States Airlines, Inc. (Trans States) and Chautauqua Airlines, Inc. (Chautauqua).

Regional Affiliates' passenger revenues, which are based on industry standard proration agreements for flights connecting to American flights, decreased $124 million, or 21.3 percent, to $457 million as a result of a reduction in capacity, decreased passenger traffic and lower yield. Regional Affiliates' traffic decreased 13.1 percent to 1.9 billion revenue passenger miles (RPMs), on a capacity decrease of 9.3 percent to 2.8 billion ASMs, resulting in a 2.9 point decrease in the passenger load factor to 66.0 percent.

Other revenues increased 6.9 percent, or $36 million, to $558 million due to increases in certain passenger service charges.

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